Category Archives: Futures

Molitor’s “Emerging Issues”

Cognitive Strategy, Futures, Strategic Foresight

At a conceptual level Molitor’s (2010)“22-step Model for Tracking and Forecasting Public Policy Change” can be applied to areas other than public policy. For, as he states in the article’s abstract “Things don’t just happen. A cascade of incremental developments and pressures coalesce and help to shape destiny”.

Broadly, his model has three stages:

  • Framing topics:                 situation, ideas, events
  • Advancing change:          change agents, communication, catalysts
  • Resolving issues:              informal acceptance, general accommodation, rule establishment

Schulz (2006) argued, using an adaptation of Molitor’s model, that the weak signals of emerging issues are indeed the portents of change that are experienced by all. That there is indeed a lifecycle of an issue and that this lifecycle has a path from its genesis through catalysts to being an accepted aspect of life.

So, for the purposes of issue capture threshold, the stages of Molitor’s model provide guidance. For an issue to be classified as emerging  a pattern of related events, of which the public is generally unaware of, needs to be identified. This identification process views the progression of idea, to innovation, to event as a continuum. Thus it can be seen that an issue that is already publicly accepted, or indeed in the process of creating change, could no longer be classified as an emerging issue.

Molitor argues that this process of issue tracking can reveal fundamental empirical and measurable quantitative forces for change. He states that a solid understanding of the issue’s context is foundational in realising high quality forecasts.

One of the difficulties of this model is in the precision with which one can place an issue. One needs to be fully cognisant of the extent of the issues acceptance in order to arrive at a suitable classification

Although there are problems with this model, it is a valuable tool from a Strategic Foresight perspective in terms of determining trend timescales and impact scope of any particular issue.

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Molitor, G. (2010). “Timeline 22-Step Model for Tracking and Forecasting Public Policy Change”, Journal of Futures Studies, March 2010, 14(3): 1 – 12

Schulz, W (2006). “The cultural contradictions of managing change: using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context”, Foresight, vol 8, no 4 pp 3-12]

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An Introduction to Environmental Scanning

Cognitive Strategy, Futures, Futurist, Innovation, Strategic Foresight

Based on extracts from one of my recent essays: “What is the impact upon donations of this technological age”?

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Choo (1999) states in the seminal article “The Art of Scanning the Environment” that “environmental scanning is the acquisition and use of information about events, trends and relationships in an organisation’s external environment”. It, environmental scanning, is broader than competitor intelligence and competitive intelligence, which are used to analyse a competitor’s actions and the shared market environment respectively. In fact, environmental scanning is used to scan every sector of the external milieu.

From the perspective of further understanding environmental scanning it is helpful to differentiate between the scanning modes. These modes broadly viewing and scanning. Of the two, scanning is more deliberate and focused:

  • Undirected viewing:       information used for sensing
  • Directed viewing:             information used for sense making
  • Informal search                information used for learning
  • Formal search                   information used for decisions

So, for the  purposes of categorisation, the scanning modes that you use could be a mix of directed viewing and informal search. Perhaps because you know what the area of strategic need is, undirected viewing isn’t appropriate. Likewise with formal search. As the output won’t be directly used for decision making, the formal search category won’t be used.

Now, with respect to the process of environmental scanning, using directed viewing to gather a breadth of information about the area of strategic need and informal search to strengthen the case for further understanding of the initial hits. For example, a “scanning hit” on philanthropy was the work of the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation. Analysis of the work they do, giving for specific outcomes, should lead to informal searches returning articles about this topic.

It is through its outcomes that the value of environmental scanning can be realised. It can be seen that the outputs of environmental scanning or the same as information acquisition in the sphere of Organisational Learning (Sanchez, 2008). Sanchez goes onto to conclude that the activity of organisational learning creates value in and for the organisation.

However, as Choo points out, the quality of environmental scanning may be affected by internal perceptions of either the information source’s credibility or relevance of the information itself.

Therefore, by being cognisant of the both the inhibitors to scanning quality and the process of scanning, highly relevant outcomes, or hits, can be realised.

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Choo, C (1999). “The Art of Scanning the Environment”, Bulletin of the American Society for Information Science, Feb-Mar 1999 p21-24

Sanchez, J (2008). “Organisational Learning and value creation in business markets”, European Journal of Marketing , Vol 44, No 11/12, 2010, pp1612-1641]]

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Foresight Theory

Futures, Futurist, Strategic Foresight

The following Strategic Foresight models deal with  analysis and interpretation as well as theoretical constructs about the future.

These constructs and models can be classified and summarised as follows:

Theoretical Constructs about the Future

“Alternate Futures”, Voros

Casting our mind forward we can see an increasing scope potential outcomes. These range from “The Projected Future” (business as usual), to “Probable” (things likely to happen on current trends), to “Plausible” (what could happen based on current knowledge), to finally “Possible” (what might happen based on future knowledge).

“Dators Three Laws”, Dator

1. The future cannot be studied because the future does not exist. 2. Any truly useful idea about the future should appear ridiculous. 3. We shape our tools and thereafter our tools shape us.

“Futures Triangle”, Inayatullah

This model maps three competing dimensions of the future. The “Pull” or the compelling arguments to attract you to progress. The “Push” or the factors out of your control the force your forward momentum. The “Weight”  or the matters that are holding you back.

“Strategic Landscape”, Tibbs

A view of the future depicted as a journey through the chessboard of issues and challenges toward the mountain of hoped for achievement. With the journey based on our inherent values with the enduring vision of our role as guidance.

Input Models

“Scanning Modes”, Choo

“environmental scanning is the acquisition and use of information about events, trends and relationships in an organisation’s external environment”. (Choo) Where this external environment is either the market that the organisation operates in, the industry that it is a part of, or the broader macro environment.

Analysis Models

“Cross Impact Analysis”, Gordon

An approach that weighs, in terms of probability, the likely impact of a set related events upon each other.

“Emerging Issues”, Molitor

A three stage, or 22-step, approach that is used to analyse the lifecycle of an issue.

“TIMN Framework”, Roenfeldt

Is a way of classifying the forms of societal development from tribes, to institutions, markets and networks.

“Power of Pull”, Hagel, Seely, Brown, Davison

Is used to analyse the impact that an idea can have in terms of its participation in knowledge flows.

Interpretation Models

“Causal Layered Analysis”, Inayatullah

An approach where layers of depth are used to interpret phenomena. These layers are the “Litany” (trends and events), “Social Causes” (factors), “Worldview” (structures and assumptions), “Metaphors” (archetypes and symbols)

“Integral Theory”, Wilber

An approach that uses four basic frames of reference to interpret phenomena. These frames of reference are the “I” (interior and individual), the “We” (interior and collective), the “Its” (exterior and collective),  and the “Its” (exterior and individual)

“Spiral Dynamics”, Beck and Cowan

An approach that explores the characteristics of human development. It is a two tier colour-coded path of development. Tier one colours are: “Beige” (archaic-instinctive), “Purple” (animistic-tribalistic), “Red” (egocentric-exploitive), “Blue” (absolutist-obedience), “Orange” (multiplistic-achievist), “Green” (relativistic-personalistic). Tier two colours are: “Yellow” (systemic-integrative) and “Turquoise” (Holistic)

“Systems Thinking”, Meadows

An approach where the relationships in terms of stocks and flows between the component parts of a system are explored.

For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.