Category Archives: Leadership

COVID-19 and the Future for Business

Economic Development, Futures, Governance, Innovation, Leadership, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight, Strategy

We are creatures of habit and isolation measures are changing our habits

Photo by Mike Kononov on Unsplash

People across the world are feeling the affects of the coronavirus called COVID-19. Whether it is directly as they suffer from the contagion, or indirectly through the various forms of social isolation, many individuals and families are having their lives changed.

Governments too are caught up in the maelstrom. They are, to varying degrees, financially, legally and morally supporting their health systems, their populations and the many aspects of their economies. Generally, these administrative bodies are taking part in global efforts to combat the pandemic.

Likewise, businesses large and small are affected. Retail facing enterprises have experienced precipitous falls in income and manufacturers have had supply chains interrupted. And, with health messages aimed squarely at driving people to work from home, the daily routines and work practices of many have shifted quite dramatically.

In amongst all of this are uncertainties about the medium to long term. Queries about what normal will look like on the other side of this pandemic. A time horizon that is familiar to strategic thinkers. To futurists.

Now, the questions a futurist seeks to provide guidance on are those that are long term in nature. This is the context for this article: the long term impact of CIVID-19. For this coronavirus has the potential to influence how people, governments and businesses operate throughout and beyond this next decade in quite profound ways.

How could the future unfold

Consider this. There are several ways the future could unfold. The following scenarios briefly describe different outcomes for daily life, for economies and for governing policies and practices.

For example, observe how governments are currently reacting. Leading politicians in many countries are quite openly resting upon the advice of scientists and other experts in constructing their responses to this crisis. Thus, to be consistent after this event, they would seek similar sources of wisdom for other problems. So, in the decade ahead you could make the argument that politicians would turn to scientists and experts to solve the challenge of climate change. Another problem that could be solved in a similar manner is the issue of social inequality.

A second way the future could pan-out is through the rejection of CBD-based employment. This scenario is based on the continued use of remote working technologies together with the ongoing threat of an outbreak of COVID-19 or a similar pathogen. As a result, people would gravitate toward living and working in the community they call home.

However, rather than focus on how things could turn out in a decade, let’s look at what could happen next. While either of the two scenarios outlined above could be realised over the next five to ten years, we need to consider how businesses could be affected over the coming 12 to 24 months. For governments around the world are talking in a timeframe of at least six months before returning to “normal” is even considered. Even then, the issues of the efficacy and availability of both anti-viral medicines (repair) and vaccines (prevention) may not be settled until well into 2021.  

So, apart from the initial reaction of configuring remote working and communication options, and the triggering of business continuity plans, there are strategic matters to reflect on. For we do need to consider the likely affects of this pandemic on business models and on human resources over the medium term.

Impacting a range of industry sectors differently

For retail businesses, bereft of any foot traffic, significant efforts are currently going into establishing both online operations and home delivery options. The collection and use of customer data is critical here as is the use of internet-based tools for growing the business. While our current habits are aligned with shopping and being entertained in a physical environment, consideration must be given to shift to digital-only operations and virtual retail environments. A second-order effect could be the further emptying of shopping areas and all that this entails.

For professional services firms, with face-to-face contact a rarity, the way clients and staff are managed could well shift significantly over the next few months. Regarding clients and prospects, all facets of hospitality and meeting locations become moot. For example, if handshakes and the stereo-typical corporate box to watch a sporting event are off the table, what distinguishes the nimble young from the stable and mature one? Likewise with aspects of human resource management. As people are spread between physical locations, trust by management in staff, and trust within teams themselves, becomes a key factor in the productivity

Let us not forget education services, government services, logistics, transport, manufacturing, agriculture and so on. The personal interaction component of each of these sectors will be affected as well. For education, the distinguishing feature of an institution for the next intake will be the quality of the online offerings and the suitability of assessments. For manufacturing, it may well be about maintaining the cohesiveness and productivity of design teams and operational units. As with professional services, the issue across a range of industry types is the question of generating new clients. Where the answer may not be found through traditional patterns.

In summary, its all about people skills and digital skills. Regarding people skills: we are experiencing shifts in how business relationships are conducted. Regarding digital skills: we intuitively know that business is increasingly reliant on digital technology. Finally, we also recognise the long-term effects that significant global events, such as the September 2001 terror attacks and the global finance crisis, have had on business. This COVID-19 pandemic is no different.

The point is this: those that respond to what may unfold are those that will reap the rewards in the new landscape.

For more of what I have to offer, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, review my IT Strategy blog, subscribe to my YouTube channel, or buy my ‘Jobs. Future. You.’ workbook.

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Digital Economy Series: “Who and what is holding us back from a fully digital economy?”

Digital Economy, Entrepreneurial Strategy, Futures, Futurist, Governance, Leadership, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight

Among many responses to the to the unfolding phenomena of a digital economy there are two that stand out. The first, is “yes, we will be enmeshed in a full digital economy by 2050”. The other, and more phlegmatic, response is “potentially, we could be enmeshed in a fully digital economy by 2050”. Upon examining the reasons for the less than full hearted second response, we reveal the forces arrayed against change. What follows is an assessment of the second response.

stop sign
Photo by Mwabonje on Pexels.com

Consider the fields of human affairs in which we are experiencing change. There’s environmental change, shifts in international and domestic politics, technological advances and the constant innovation in the health and human services sectors. Let us not neglect the spheres of finance, education, and governance. The list goes on. Trends, change and drivers of change. All threads in the dynamic tapestry of early 21st Century life.

In among all of this we are examining the digital economy and who and what is stymieing what some would call progress to the realisation of a fully digital economy in the decades ahead.

Asking questions is the key to this examination. Questions like: who benefits from the status quo and who loses if we go fully digital? What are the social, political, economic, legal, environmental or technological barriers to realising a fully digital economy? Are cultural worldviews and belief systems the obstacles in the path to building an economy that is fully digital?

Turning firstly to the status quo. Benefiting from the status quo are those whose influence, power and profit are founded on the world of atoms. If these attributes of prominence do not translate to the world of bits change is resisted. Remember the retailers of a few years back? To them the internet was but a passing fad. They saw no need to embrace the digital economy.

Our reference point for an examination of the social barriers could be the introduction of Facebook. Once Metcalf’s law kicked in, ordinary people could see the inherent value in sharing their lives online and overcame their reluctance to enter their personal and private details into the Facebook database. Turning to one potential aspect of life that could be with us the time ahead: personal artificial intelligence assistants (we do have Alexa, Cortana & Siri now don’t we?). Our uneasiness with being second guessed ahead of time by artificial intelligence may be rendered moot because of the value and ease these new machines bring to our lives, relationships and careers.

And what of the governing class and the way political life is conducted. Is it because of the Machiavellian dictum “never attempt to win by force that can be won by deception” that political barriers will remain? For with this category of barrier the perspective that “a fully digital economy is equivalent to full transparency” may well be the non-negotiable impediment raised by its stakeholders. An anathema to the political class.

And what of legal barriers? Consider the difficulties presented by cryptocurrencies, the machinations we have with privacy in a digital world, and the conundrums with copyright. And let us not forget the implications of RegTech, the jurisdictional challenges faced by taxation authorities in this digital world, and the quagmire at the interface of human bodies and technology.

Finally, there is who we are as individuals, as members of families, communities, tribes and nations. All revealing a rich and complex global panoply of worldviews and belief systems. We can conjure images of dystopia and pockets of doomsday preppers as symbols of resistance to a fully digital economy. And similarly we watch the countervailing forces of progressives and conservatives. Progressives seeking a better way, conservatives seeking to only incrementally improve the way things are. And then we have the reactionaries who are bent on impeding any forward movement that the forces of improvement show.

Given all this, is it any wonder that we have so far been able to thread the needle of change. Is it any wonder that the quality of so many parts of our daily life for so many lives is better than what it was decades ago?

There is no single “who” or “what” holding us back from a fully digital economy. But what there is this: a multitude of challenges that are to be overcome on our collective arc of accumulation.

 

For more of what I have to offer, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, review my IT Strategy blog, subscribe to my YouTube channel, or buy my ‘Jobs. Future. You.’ workbook.

Digital Economy Series: Will the offline world really matter anymore?

Digital Economy, Futures, Futurist, Innovation, Leadership, Strategic Foresight, Strategy

Although this series of Digital Economy articles is written from the perspective of what life could well be like at the half-way point of this Century, it is instructive to step back and view the flow of history. For it is through an appreciation of how human affairs have changed, and what has driven those changes, that we can grasp what lies ahead. That we can begin to form answers to the questions at hand.

great sphynx of giza egypt
Photo by Arralyn on Pexels.com

Questions such as: will the offline world matter in 2050? Will the teenage grandchildren of today’s teenagers interact with the physical world as is currently the case? Will the limitations of our physical world be overcome by then? Will the digital realm be a greater source of influence than the temporal?

Prior to recent times, our lives were centred on the world of the atom rather than the world of the bit. It was solely in physical spaces that we built relationships, grew economies and exercised political influence. From the villages of the agricultural age to cities of the industrial age domestic, business and government activities were conducted exclusively through analogue means.

But it is without question that we are in a period of transition. The balance is shifting from the physical to the digital. For although the online world is ubiquitous, we are still beholden to our physical world. Even though domain names and the virtual properties they represent sell for millions, the power and opportunity that is afforded through the ownership of real-estate is even more significant. Even though a cadre of eminence grise wield the power of social media in commercial and political spheres, we still respond through our presence at the checkout or the ballot box. And even though the value of digital services is rising, our nations’ export earnings are still dominated by that which can be carried in ships.

Given that the trees of tomorrow are todays seedlings. That the systems of tomorrow and the way things will be are nascent today. What do we see around us? Today our social and retail transactions are dominated by ever-present digital transaction, and as we grow more comfortable with its safety and ease, tomorrow these transactions will dominate all other aspects of our lives such as our domestic, employment, health, romantic and spiritual affairs.

Today, most of us are generally free to live our lives free from statutory manipulation. But as we see administrations around the world learning to leverage digital tools to achieve social outcomes, opposing voices may well be reduced to obscurity. For even the phenomena such as the growing Tech-Lash or the various uprisings coordinated through social media will fade into impotence as the State develops and controls the digital-only narrative to maintain political control.

And so, in the time ahead, our lives will centred on the world of the bit rather than the world of the atom. It is more than likely that it will solely be in virtual spaces that we build relationships, grow economies and exercise political influence. Where we are headed, transitioning from the cities of the current information age to megapolises of the coming intelligence age it is quite reasonable to assume that all domestic, business and government activities will be conducted exclusively through digital means.

Therefore, how the teenage grandchildren of today’s teenagers experience life will be vastly different to our current reality. The offline world won’t be as dominant as it is today.

 

 

For more of what I have to offer, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, review my IT Strategy blog, subscribe to my YouTube channel, or buy my ‘Jobs. Future. You.’ workbook.