Monthly Archives: July 2014

Right All Along

Futures, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight

Alongside availability bias and framing bias is hindsight bias.

Just as availability bias restricts our thinking with what is going on at present, and framing bias narrows our responses to our own perspective, hindsight bias hinders us in learning about the past.

Have you ever said to yourself – “well, I was right”. But in actual fact you weren’t. You are just “sugarcoating” history. If you will, putting a positive spin on what you said would happen.

Hindsight bias limits the possibility of improving our future judgements or forecasts, by inflating our the outcomes from our past judgements or forecasts. In other words, I have been right all along, so why improve?

By being aware of this limitation, we can improve our abilities in making right decisions. We can get better at forecasting. We can enhance our thinking. We give ourselves a better chance of considering the scenarios before us.

 
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

Advertisement

Do You Have The Correct Perspective?

Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight

Following on from the previous post concerning availability bias, there is another inherent bias we must be aware of. Its called framing bias.

How do you view situations? What is you standard perspective? To extend the analogy, through which window frame are you seeing the issue?

And so, to increase your understanding of a situation you need to be aware of your, and others, framing bias. To go one step further, why do you always use a particular frame?

The other side of the coin is the framing of the issue. What do you want people to see? What choices do you want the audience to make? Would you rather report on a change in terms of percentages or absolute figures? How do you want to frame that change? How do you want the audience to react?

For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

Are you biased by your world?

Futures, Planning Strategy, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight, Strategic Planning

When we come to make decisions we must be aware of the limitations we are faced with. Its more important in thinking about and developing strategies. Do you have enough information? Are you aware of your tendency to weight certain outcomes based on current events and trends?

That is, there is an insufficient spread information in order to make the correct decision, or to choose the optimal pathway.

This is called “availability bias”.

We are making choices and deciding on what path to take based on what is available right now.

A couple of examples. Firstly, a while ago we had the SARS epidemic. Well, there was an uptick in the concerns corporates had for the availability of key people in times crisis & had they could work from home.

And secondly, imagine doing some long-term marketing planning several years ago. During those sessions and workshops where investment in capacity skills where being debated. Would social media expert ever come up? Would the recognition that the forms of on-line marketing would change ever be broached?

One of the ways to counteract this availability bias is to have experts in the field have input to your decision making. Experts with some perspectives on the issue at hand.

But a key way to counteract your availability bias is being aware of it in the first place.
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.