Right All Along

Alongside availability bias and framing bias is hindsight bias.

Just as availability bias restricts our thinking with what is going on at present, and framing bias narrows our responses to our own perspective, hindsight bias hinders us in learning about the past.

Have you ever said to yourself – “well, I was right”. But in actual fact you weren’t. You are just “sugarcoating” history. If you will, putting a positive spin on what you said would happen.

Hindsight bias limits the possibility of improving our future judgements or forecasts, by inflating our the outcomes from our past judgements or forecasts. In other words, I have been right all along, so why improve?

By being aware of this limitation, we can improve our abilities in making right decisions. We can get better at forecasting. We can enhance our thinking. We give ourselves a better chance of considering the scenarios before us.

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