Category Archives: Futurist

Digital Economy Series: In a digital economy will the abundance of data fuel a golden age of wisdom?

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Knowledge in action. Sagacity. Percipience. Having experience, knowledge and good judgement. These words and phrases all describe and define wisdom. But will an abundance of data lead us to a golden age of wisdom? Will a richness of facts and figures, statistics and evidence lead us to a never-ending harvest of good judgement?

If we give credence to the DIKW (data, information, knowledge, wisdom) information science hierarchy, the answer leans to the affirmative. For with this framework, the following is the pattern: firstly, an abundance of data certainly leads to a wealth of information, or descriptions, about a plethora of matters. Which should, in turn, facilitate a breadth and depth of knowledge that is available for teaching and mentoring at a level unsurpassed in human history. Where the fruits of expertise, of mastery and of prowess are collectively this knowledge. And where this teaching and mentoring is an enabler to all people across the world regardless of the strata of society in which they sit. Where all of this flow upward from data, information and knowledge leads, finally, to a culmination in a golden age of wisdom. A time of good judgement and wise action.

But is the preceding flow true if we use a different time horizon? This piece you are reading is written for a time-frame of several decades into the future. What if you and I were to wind the clock back several decades to a time where “today was that tomorrow of several decades into the future”? Comparing this “back-in-time today” to the “current-time today”, is the latter enriched with an abundance of data? Do we, in the “current-time today” have a wealth of information about a plethora of matters compared with the times past. And thirdly, with respect to the current times, do we not have the ability, through information and communications technology, to teach and to share the fruits of expertise globally?

The argument can be made that we are better off today than yesterday. That we are wiser, that we have made sound judgements. While there is so much more to do, we can point to improvements in economic and physical health across the globe. We can make mention of the reduced rates of nation-state armed conflict and of improvements in education. But as we cast our eyes forward, will the teenage grandchildren of today’s teenagers be enveloped in, and benefit from, a milieu of experience, knowledge and good judgement? Consider the following two scenarios.

While matters of family are a common thread, that young woman in Asia, on the cusp of adulthood, may well have a personalised AI avatar to guide her through career and social choices. Offering her advice that could be heeded. And what-about that young man? A product of his Western heritage, looking to develop a career in the physical trades, finding his options don’t include the routine work he desires. Just like he was told throughout his schooling years.

In both cases, wisdom is offered but not infused. The prospects are that tomorrow will be just like today. Today we have that abundance of knowledge and the capacity for wise outcomes. And tomorrow? Our knowledge will have grown, we’ll have intelligence on hand and our capacity for delivering wise outcomes will be enhanced, but whether or not our results reflect these well-developed inputs is surely debatable.

These same arguments can be made regarding the generation of these teenager’s parents. Regardless of whether they live in Africa, the Sub-continent or in the Global North, one can imagine these parental pillars of society having responsibility in business or in policy making. Where the leaders in business are bound to a then long-established fiduciary duty to consult digital oracles. Where the policy makers can freely receive a finely curated harvest of good judgement.

Again it plays out in these two cases, decisions not quite fully imbued with the wisdom on offer. For across all four of these vignettes witness a surfeit of data, of information and of knowledge ripe with judicious potential. But where the consumption of this particular fruit is not universal. And the common denominator? What stands in front of this golden age of wisdom is surely our inherent human nature.

 


For more of what I have to offer, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, review my IT Strategy blog, subscribe to my YouTube channel, or buy my ‘Jobs. Future. You.’ workbook.

Digital Economy Series: In a fully digital economy will you still be needing the same things you do today?

We produce goods and services and we trade in those goods and services because we either want them or need them. There is a market for them. But in the decades ahead, in a market of bits rather than of atoms, will we still be using the same things we do today? From a final consumer perspective, will the digital economy of the future be unrecognizable compared to today’s economy?

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Consider the retail sector. Where its all about the creation and trade in products for the home, for our relaxation, for our sustenance. Or the business sector, where that same dynamic of creation and exchange can be used to drive innovation, to improve operational efficiency, or to maintain a market profile. Or even the public and the not-for-profit sectors, where those same market mechanics apply. That is, in order to provide services, products are purchased. And where nascent product creators are supported.

Reflect too on the structure of this global production and trade system. At over $80trillion dollars, the global economy is broadly comprised of agriculture (primary activity) at 3%, industry (secondary) at 30%, and services (tertiary) at 60%. An important factor in all of this are the sources of government taxation. A third of government revenue is from income, profits and capital gains and a third from taxes on goods and services.

Assuming ceteris paribus, in the coming decades you and I will still have need for shelter, for food, for companionship and relaxation. The same argument can be made for business, for government and the third sector comparing the needs of today and tomorrow. Of note, however, is the form through which the need is satisfied.

We no longer desire, for example, to take our family in a horse drawn buggy on a holiday to the sea-side, or to join with family and others to around a wireless set listening to the latest play. Nor do businesses require a typing pool for the efficient production of company memos and customer missives.

But nowadays digital channels of communication are usurping long establishing temporal forms of connections. Nowadays, micro-targeting of marketing messages are more effective at driving trade in goods and services than legacy mass media. Nowadays, there is a greater level of involvement and transparency with those that are served by the public and third sectors compared to times past.

And tomorrow? Through a utopian lens we could see life being further enhanced by digital technology. It could be argued that just like today, where a life stage for an adolescent is marked by receiving a smartphone, that same transition for a teenager in 2050 could be celebrated by receiving their own life-enriching wearable AI tech. A world, for this teenager, where the uncanny valley is no longer a limitation in media and entertainment channels. A world, as teenagers look at the career paths of their parents, that is dominated by the output of firms that have put a high priority on employees with first rate people skills and thinking skills.

Likewise, through a dystopian lens, life for that teenager in 2050 could be one that is further controlled by digital technology. AI implants mark the adolescent life transition. Options for entertainment and other daily choices are slanted toward optimal social outcomes. Beckoning career paths are with firms that are aligned with forms of surveillance capitalism.

The threads that are common to both scenarios are the changes in social structure and the innate desire to make things easier for ourselves. Over time our social institutions change and the people to which we ascribe status. It could be argued that in recent history major sport clubs and/or political parties have supplanted religious groups as our common social institutions. It could be that the realm of the AI and quantum computing scientist and engineer becomes the new sanctum. A new standard of social acceptance that leads to the erasure of the barrier to all forms personalised AI tech.

Regarding the desire for making things easier, the so-called “efficient transaction hypothesis”, witness the smartphone. We embraced it because it made complex or time-consuming tasks (personal transactions) more efficient. It made communication easier, information gathering easier and entertaining easier. A significant factor of human nature that will drive the future acceptance of technologies that we perceive today as pervasive and distasteful.

In a fully digital economy we won’t be needing the same things as today, but we will be needing the same types of things. The world of atoms meets our needs today, the world of bits will meet our needs tomorrow.

 


For more of what I have to offer, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, review my IT Strategy blog, subscribe to my YouTube channel, or buy my ‘Jobs. Future. You.’ workbook.

Digital Economy Series: In a fully digital economy will the dollar still be king?

We trade in what we value. Whether it be a young child trading a small coin for a sweet at a corner store, the consistent portion of a wage over many years in exchange for a house, or the complexity of financial transactions to fund a manufacturers expansion. If we value something we will participate in a fair exchange with the seller.

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We are all aware of the barter economy, of an era long past, where that form of trade was the primary mechanism to establish fair exchange between parties. Over the course of time it was hard currency that first supplanted this ancient mechanism, then promissory notes, until now where digital representations of cash are the means through which value is exchanged fairly.

Also today, it is a sovereign currency, the dollar (or Euro, Renminbi or Yen) if you will, that is king. It is this fiat currency, this legal tender of value backed by an issuing government that is implicitly trusted so that we can fairly exchange value. Whether its that young child at the corner shop, or the insurance company guaranteeing the importation of that machinery, we all implicitly trust that issuing authority.

We pay, and governments collect, taxes based on that trust. Businesses leverage the inherent strengths of the banking system to invest in growth, based on that trust. Governments trust other governments based on that trust.

But in a fully digital economy, what entity will be the foundation of that trust? The case could be made that a single global currency could become king. Where, over the coming decades, a currency founded on blockchain principles could supplant the many sovereign currencies in existence today. The case could also be made for a return to the barter system. Where, again over the coming decades, the nascent peer-to-peer sharing economy becomes the most trusted mechanism for the fair exchange of value.

For I don’t believe that we can safely assume the future of financial transactions is just a more efficient version of what we experience today. Where sovereign entities of trust anchor computerised exchanges of value at retail, commercial and government levels. What if the world moves to a type of universal basic income or universal basic services model? Where the accumulation of wealth is a foreign concept to most and bartering is de rigueur. Or, what if the digital economy transforms into the intelligence economy? Where real value is no longer held in varying compositions of bits, but in prized abstractions of knowledge stored in quantum computing machines.

But I do believe that human nature will fundamentally remain unaltered in the coming decades. In a fully digitised economy there will continue to be shining examples of our “better angels” and likewise examples of those with more sinister intent. And, because of our human nature we will still form systems of governance and administrative oversight. We will still need the ability to enforce exclusion upon those who are a danger to society. We will still participate in fair exchanges of value. And don’t forget, people will still be people. At our core we’ll be motivated by the desire to either work toward goals, to work with people, or to work to accumulate power.

Given all this, and as we look far over the time horizon, will the dollar still be king in a fully digital economy? More than likely, the literal dollar won’t be king but the metaphorical dollar will be. Even though human nature is not likely to change, the mechanism for the fair exchange will continue to change. For each of us will continue to have something of value that is worthy of trading.

 


For more of what I have to offer, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, review my IT Strategy blog, subscribe to my YouTube channel, or buy my ‘Jobs. Future. You.’ workbook.