Scenarios. A method that enables an organization to peer into the future with a degree of certainty.
Scenario planning has a long history. According to some historians, scenario planning was birthed in the US military in the early stages of the Cold War and was further developed by Herman Khan. The touchstone for this prospective method is the work done by Wack, among others, at Royal Dutch Shell from the mid 1960’s.
The scenario development process is in essence a two part issue development process. The first part of the process is where the group is split into teams of three stakeholders to run through the issue at hand. The second part is where the teams come back together to form a group consensus around the issue.
Process Overview:
- Define the Issue
- Determining Driving Forces
- Cluster Driving Forces
- Identify Extreme, but Plausible, Outcomes
- Occurrence Impact – Occurrence Probability Matrix
- Scenario Framing
- Scenario Scoping
- Scenario Development
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The Forward View 