When choosing which path to take, there are often several alternatives.
But how do you choose?
One way is use the tool of scenario planning. A framework for putting the issue of focus into perspective. But not just one perspective, it uses melds of ranges of impact and uncertainty to create four storylines.
The benefit of using this model is that you can see clearly what can happen if certain things occur.
Say you are looking to invest in expanding your manufacturing plant. The output from that plant is used by particular customer segment. In order to be satisfied that there will be a payoff for that investment you’ll need to be convinced that that customer segment will be around for the life of that investment.
So the key question is, what are the drivers of change for that particular customer segment? What is likely to happen to your current, and potential, customers throughout the years ahead?
So, by thinking about a range of events that could happen and the impact if they do, risks and opportunities with respect to that investment can be quantified.