Handling Uncertainty

How does your organisation handle uncertainty? When is the market for you products likely to shift? What trends are influencing those who consume your goods and services?

One way to approach what is happening in the market you are operating in is to consider these changes in terms of complexity and dynamism. How complex is your market? How many players are there and what are their relationships? Do buyer decisions rest on the actions of others?

Housing development may be considered a complex market. Not only are there consumer trends to watch for, but council approvals, political overlays, appeals processes and the like.

A dynamic market is where there are frequent disruptors, where technology leads the charge, where new players enter and market share must be defended.

The smartphone market is a dynamic market. For how long did Apple have dominance until Google with their partners delivering Android based phones come on the scene? And now it seems its a virtual turf war to defend, up the ante, and so.

So, how do you handle uncertainty? How do you handle complexity and dynamism?

The answer is with strategic foresight.

The answer is with a set of strategic thinking tools to navigate these changes. Whether its the use of tools such as scenario planning, environmental scanning, or causal layered analysis, you can plan for the future. You can forecast change that is likely to happen rather than adapt to change as its happening.

 
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