All posts by terop

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About terop

Futurist and IT Strategist. Public speaker, PhD (Industries of the Future), author ("Jobs. Future. You."), teacher (IT, leadership)

Systems thinking

Strategic Planning, Strategy, Systems

Developing strategy is often not a simple linear process. Its not “let’s do A, then B, then C”.

For you need to consider what the impacts are upon A, and what the other areas are that A will impact. For it just might be that A influences something which in turn makes C irrelevant.

Its called systems thinking. Its a way of thinking that considers all of the relationships between all of the components. And further, it considers the level and direction of influence that each of those components have on each other.

And systems are everywhere. There are interconnections between different businesses and between individuals within a business. We have a system of roads, of air & rail transport, and so on. There are systems within hospitals, within universities, and within emergency services providers. Think of a sporting club also as a system, even your family!

But what marks out a system? Its the flow of information, its the time delay between action and outcome, its the feedback loop between the output and input. Its the complexity derived from many interconnected parts.

Regarding the flow of information. How does information move from one part of the system to another? What external information comes into the system? What information is prevented from making its way around the parts of the system. And thinking about the profile of the information – is it always the same, are do the makeup of the messages transferred change from time to time?

Regarding time delays and feedback loops. How long does it take for an effect to be noticed? Do any outcomes loop back and change the next input?

So when developing strategy, think of the flow of information and think of the time difference between when something is started and when it will be finished. For when that 1 year, 3 year, or 5 year plan has come to pass the context of that plan’s completed state will be different to the current one. And the difference will be in part related to the mix and flow of information and changing influences throughout that 1, 3 or 5 year period.

For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

Change is Accelerating

Futures, Futurist, Innovation, Strategic Foresight

Heraclitus, a 5th Century BC philosopher, focused on the doctrine of change. He put forth the many pearls of wisdom, which in turn were quoted by the likes of Aristotle and Plato. Two of these are:

  • “You could not step twice into the same river”
  • “It is harder to fight against pleasure than against anger”

But the one he is most remembered for is:

  • “The only thing that is constant in life is change”

Think about that. Here we are today in a world full of change, and some bloke from 2,500 years ago agrees. If change was constantly happening back then, how much more is it around us today.

But, change is not linear. It’s not happening at a steady rate. It does seem that new and significant, that trends and shifts, that developments and advances are upon us with increasing rapidity. Think about this. As much as we have seen over the last 75 years, we will see over the next 25.

Now, reflect upon what we have seen over the last 75 years. The invention of penicillin, the achievements of moon landings, and that all pervasive internet. What will we see over the next 25? Driverless cars as standard, over-the-counter individually-tailored gene-based medicines, holographic shopping experiences?

There is a theory that attempts to describe what we are experiencing. Its called “the accelerating change” theory. Its where as we discover new ways of doing things, we learn more, which in turn opens up more improvements, and so on. And as more people become connected and aware of these improvements, even more change will happen.

Think about that self-serve checkout at the supermarket. Someone figured out a way, based on self-serve at the petrol station, to enable customers to do the same with grocery items. And now, given the convenience and speed of this change at supermarkets, we can get in and out quickly.  I dare say you could find many more examples.

Change will always be with us, and the rate of change is increasing. That has a real impact upon you and upon your organization. How will you, how are you navigating a path forward?

 
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

Handling Uncertainty

Futures, Futurist, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight

How does your organisation handle uncertainty? When is the market for you products likely to shift? What trends are influencing those who consume your goods and services?

One way to approach what is happening in the market you are operating in is to consider these changes in terms of complexity and dynamism. How complex is your market? How many players are there and what are their relationships? Do buyer decisions rest on the actions of others?

Housing development may be considered a complex market. Not only are there consumer trends to watch for, but council approvals, political overlays, appeals processes and the like.

A dynamic market is where there are frequent disruptors, where technology leads the charge, where new players enter and market share must be defended.

The smartphone market is a dynamic market. For how long did Apple have dominance until Google with their partners delivering Android based phones come on the scene? And now it seems its a virtual turf war to defend, up the ante, and so.

So, how do you handle uncertainty? How do you handle complexity and dynamism?

The answer is with strategic foresight.

The answer is with a set of strategic thinking tools to navigate these changes. Whether its the use of tools such as scenario planning, environmental scanning, or causal layered analysis, you can plan for the future. You can forecast change that is likely to happen rather than adapt to change as its happening.

 
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.