All posts by terop

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About terop

Futurist and IT Strategist. Public speaker, PhD (Industries of the Future), author ("Jobs. Future. You."), teacher (IT, leadership)

Are you biased by your world?

Futures, Planning Strategy, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight, Strategic Planning

When we come to make decisions we must be aware of the limitations we are faced with. Its more important in thinking about and developing strategies. Do you have enough information? Are you aware of your tendency to weight certain outcomes based on current events and trends?

That is, there is an insufficient spread information in order to make the correct decision, or to choose the optimal pathway.

This is called “availability bias”.

We are making choices and deciding on what path to take based on what is available right now.

A couple of examples. Firstly, a while ago we had the SARS epidemic. Well, there was an uptick in the concerns corporates had for the availability of key people in times crisis & had they could work from home.

And secondly, imagine doing some long-term marketing planning several years ago. During those sessions and workshops where investment in capacity skills where being debated. Would social media expert ever come up? Would the recognition that the forms of on-line marketing would change ever be broached?

One of the ways to counteract this availability bias is to have experts in the field have input to your decision making. Experts with some perspectives on the issue at hand.

But a key way to counteract your availability bias is being aware of it in the first place.
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

What path to take?

Planning Strategy, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight, Strategic Planning, Strategy

When choosing which path to take, there are often several alternatives.

But how do you choose?

One way is use the tool of scenario planning. A framework for putting the issue of focus into perspective. But not just one perspective, it uses melds of ranges of impact and uncertainty to create four storylines.

The benefit of using this model is that you can see clearly what can happen if certain things occur.

Say you are looking to invest in expanding your manufacturing plant. The output from that plant is used by particular customer segment. In order to be satisfied that there will be a payoff for that investment you’ll need to be convinced that that customer segment will be around for the life of that investment.

So the key question is, what are the drivers of change for that particular customer segment? What is likely to happen to your current, and potential, customers throughout the years ahead?

So, by thinking about a range of events that could happen and the impact if they do, risks and opportunities with respect to that investment can be quantified.

 
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

Can you see the whole picture?

Cognitive Strategy, Cultural Strategy, Futurist, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Strategy

Most times when looking for a response to a long term problem we approach it with the same frame of view. Its almost as if we perpetuate the problem we are trying to solve because of some type of limitation in our ability to see things from another perspective.

Well, there are frameworks and models to assist us in our thinking.

One such model is based on Ken Wilber’s “Integral Theory”. Where integral implies seeing the whole picture.

In essence Wilber argues that there are four perspectives to any phenomena:

  1. the systems we share (ie, the exterior collective, social)
  2. the beliefs we share (ie. the interior collective, cultural)
  3. the systems that are me (ie, the exterior individual, behaviours)
  4. the beliefs that are me (ie, the interior individual, intentions)

So, how does this apply in practice?

For example, a team seems to continually come up short with respect to its customer service KPI’s. All previous attempts at improving have been focused on training. Well, how about seeing if other actions would work?

How about reflecting upon the intentions of those in the group. How might those be aligned with what you are trying to achieve? What about considering the systems that the people are working with. Are the IT systems that the team are using fit for the job? And what about the culture of the group? What words and metaphors can you use to describe it?

So, by looking at the problem from a different vantage point the keys to unlocking that issue can be found.

 
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.