Category Archives: Scenario Planninng

Handling Uncertainty

How does your organisation handle uncertainty? When is the market for you products likely to shift? What trends are influencing those who consume your goods and services?

One way to approach what is happening in the market you are operating in is to consider these changes in terms of complexity and dynamism. How complex is your market? How many players are there and what are their relationships? Do buyer decisions rest on the actions of others?

Housing development may be considered a complex market. Not only are there consumer trends to watch for, but council approvals, political overlays, appeals processes and the like.

A dynamic market is where there are frequent disruptors, where technology leads the charge, where new players enter and market share must be defended.

The smartphone market is a dynamic market. For how long did Apple have dominance until Google with their partners delivering Android based phones come on the scene? And now it seems its a virtual turf war to defend, up the ante, and so.

So, how do you handle uncertainty? How do you handle complexity and dynamism?

The answer is with strategic foresight.

The answer is with a set of strategic thinking tools to navigate these changes. Whether its the use of tools such as scenario planning, environmental scanning, or causal layered analysis, you can plan for the future. You can forecast change that is likely to happen rather than adapt to change as its happening.

For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.


Right All Along

Alongside availability bias and framing bias is hindsight bias.

Just as availability bias restricts our thinking with what is going on at present, and framing bias narrows our responses to our own perspective, hindsight bias hinders us in learning about the past.

Have you ever said to yourself – “well, I was right”. But in actual fact you weren’t. You are just “sugarcoating” history. If you will, putting a positive spin on what you said would happen.

Hindsight bias limits the possibility of improving our future judgements or forecasts, by inflating our the outcomes from our past judgements or forecasts. In other words, I have been right all along, so why improve?

By being aware of this limitation, we can improve our abilities in making right decisions. We can get better at forecasting. We can enhance our thinking. We give ourselves a better chance of considering the scenarios before us.

For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

Do You Have The Correct Perspective?

Following on from the previous post concerning availability bias, there is another inherent bias we must be aware of. Its called framing bias.

How do you view situations? What is you standard perspective? To extend the analogy, through which window frame are you seeing the issue?

And so, to increase your understanding of a situation you need to be aware of your, and others, framing bias. To go one step further, why do you always use a particular frame?

The other side of the coin is the framing of the issue. What do you want people to see? What choices do you want the audience to make? Would you rather report on a change in terms of percentages or absolute figures? How do you want to frame that change? How do you want the audience to react?

For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.