Category Archives: Scenario Planninng

There is change between now and the future – how do you view them both?

Given that we’ll experience the same amount of new inventions and technological change over the next 25 years that we have experienced over the last 75 years, how will your business be affected?

Secondly, given that the volume and value of international trade has consistently accelerated since the early 1950’s, how will our economy be affected?

And given that some of the highest value jobs on the market were not around 10 years ago, how will your career be affected?

Given these things, can we really say that the future is a far off time? Firstly, can we approach our business, including our customers, suppliers and the competition the same as we always have? Secondly, what about the economy? How will the global changes that we are seeing affect us? For example, look to at the trends in China’s economic growth or even reflect upon how the current events across Europe will play out. The question is how will these global changes impact the local markets in which we trade and the social environment in which we live? And finally, what about our jobs, the career we are planning on having?

Yes there are risks. But there are also opportunities. We can look at the glass half empty, or we can see it as half full (as an aside, some wags suggest that the glass is twice as big as it needs to be!).

So, we should be planning for these possibilities. We should be considering the social and economic trends that will be affecting us. We should be weighing up the risks and opportunities afforded by new technologies, by new ways of doing things.

We should be considering the future through more than “business as usual” lens.

Would you consider viewing the future through a dystopian lens or a utopian lens. What about using a lens of greater regulation and discipline?

For the question is: through what lens do you see the future?

For more of what I have to offer, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT Strategy blog.

Handling Uncertainty

How does your organisation handle uncertainty? When is the market for you products likely to shift? What trends are influencing those who consume your goods and services?

One way to approach what is happening in the market you are operating in is to consider these changes in terms of complexity and dynamism. How complex is your market? How many players are there and what are their relationships? Do buyer decisions rest on the actions of others?

Housing development may be considered a complex market. Not only are there consumer trends to watch for, but council approvals, political overlays, appeals processes and the like.

A dynamic market is where there are frequent disruptors, where technology leads the charge, where new players enter and market share must be defended.

The smartphone market is a dynamic market. For how long did Apple have dominance until Google with their partners delivering Android based phones come on the scene? And now it seems its a virtual turf war to defend, up the ante, and so.

So, how do you handle uncertainty? How do you handle complexity and dynamism?

The answer is with strategic foresight.

The answer is with a set of strategic thinking tools to navigate these changes. Whether its the use of tools such as scenario planning, environmental scanning, or causal layered analysis, you can plan for the future. You can forecast change that is likely to happen rather than adapt to change as its happening.

 
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

Right All Along

Alongside availability bias and framing bias is hindsight bias.

Just as availability bias restricts our thinking with what is going on at present, and framing bias narrows our responses to our own perspective, hindsight bias hinders us in learning about the past.

Have you ever said to yourself – “well, I was right”. But in actual fact you weren’t. You are just “sugarcoating” history. If you will, putting a positive spin on what you said would happen.

Hindsight bias limits the possibility of improving our future judgements or forecasts, by inflating our the outcomes from our past judgements or forecasts. In other words, I have been right all along, so why improve?

By being aware of this limitation, we can improve our abilities in making right decisions. We can get better at forecasting. We can enhance our thinking. We give ourselves a better chance of considering the scenarios before us.

 
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.