Category Archives: Futures

Handling Uncertainty

Futures, Futurist, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight

How does your organisation handle uncertainty? When is the market for you products likely to shift? What trends are influencing those who consume your goods and services?

One way to approach what is happening in the market you are operating in is to consider these changes in terms of complexity and dynamism. How complex is your market? How many players are there and what are their relationships? Do buyer decisions rest on the actions of others?

Housing development may be considered a complex market. Not only are there consumer trends to watch for, but council approvals, political overlays, appeals processes and the like.

A dynamic market is where there are frequent disruptors, where technology leads the charge, where new players enter and market share must be defended.

The smartphone market is a dynamic market. For how long did Apple have dominance until Google with their partners delivering Android based phones come on the scene? And now it seems its a virtual turf war to defend, up the ante, and so.

So, how do you handle uncertainty? How do you handle complexity and dynamism?

The answer is with strategic foresight.

The answer is with a set of strategic thinking tools to navigate these changes. Whether its the use of tools such as scenario planning, environmental scanning, or causal layered analysis, you can plan for the future. You can forecast change that is likely to happen rather than adapt to change as its happening.

 
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

Right All Along

Futures, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight

Alongside availability bias and framing bias is hindsight bias.

Just as availability bias restricts our thinking with what is going on at present, and framing bias narrows our responses to our own perspective, hindsight bias hinders us in learning about the past.

Have you ever said to yourself – “well, I was right”. But in actual fact you weren’t. You are just “sugarcoating” history. If you will, putting a positive spin on what you said would happen.

Hindsight bias limits the possibility of improving our future judgements or forecasts, by inflating our the outcomes from our past judgements or forecasts. In other words, I have been right all along, so why improve?

By being aware of this limitation, we can improve our abilities in making right decisions. We can get better at forecasting. We can enhance our thinking. We give ourselves a better chance of considering the scenarios before us.

 
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

Are you biased by your world?

Futures, Planning Strategy, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight, Strategic Planning

When we come to make decisions we must be aware of the limitations we are faced with. Its more important in thinking about and developing strategies. Do you have enough information? Are you aware of your tendency to weight certain outcomes based on current events and trends?

That is, there is an insufficient spread information in order to make the correct decision, or to choose the optimal pathway.

This is called “availability bias”.

We are making choices and deciding on what path to take based on what is available right now.

A couple of examples. Firstly, a while ago we had the SARS epidemic. Well, there was an uptick in the concerns corporates had for the availability of key people in times crisis & had they could work from home.

And secondly, imagine doing some long-term marketing planning several years ago. During those sessions and workshops where investment in capacity skills where being debated. Would social media expert ever come up? Would the recognition that the forms of on-line marketing would change ever be broached?

One of the ways to counteract this availability bias is to have experts in the field have input to your decision making. Experts with some perspectives on the issue at hand.

But a key way to counteract your availability bias is being aware of it in the first place.
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.