Category Archives: Scenario Planninng

What path to take?

Planning Strategy, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight, Strategic Planning, Strategy

When choosing which path to take, there are often several alternatives.

But how do you choose?

One way is use the tool of scenario planning. A framework for putting the issue of focus into perspective. But not just one perspective, it uses melds of ranges of impact and uncertainty to create four storylines.

The benefit of using this model is that you can see clearly what can happen if certain things occur.

Say you are looking to invest in expanding your manufacturing plant. The output from that plant is used by particular customer segment. In order to be satisfied that there will be a payoff for that investment you’ll need to be convinced that that customer segment will be around for the life of that investment.

So the key question is, what are the drivers of change for that particular customer segment? What is likely to happen to your current, and potential, customers throughout the years ahead?

So, by thinking about a range of events that could happen and the impact if they do, risks and opportunities with respect to that investment can be quantified.

 
For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

Wrong Assumptions?

Futures, Futurist, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight, Strategic Planning

When undertaking any form of planning for the future, whether strategic planning, scenario planning, or even environmental scanning, we need to be aware of our assumptions. We need to be aware of our biases.

There’s a story about two European shoe salesmen sent to different parts of a remote
part of Africa to study sales potential. The first reported back that since no one wore shoes, there was zero sales potential. The second reported that since no one wore shoes, the potential was infinite. Both salesman had the same facts, but both viewed the data differently. There interpretations were quite different.

With their different assumptions about why the market conditions were as they were, their conclusions were wildly different.

Are your assumptions right, is your frame of reference the only one that counts, what biases do you bring to the table?

So, what are the range of potential biases that you can have:

  • availability bias: how do recent events impact your responses?
  • framing bias: do you always look at a situation “through the same window frame”?
  • hindsight bias: “I knew it all along” with respect to our previous (wrong) predictions
  • confirmation bias: we only remember the times when we were right

The “anti-dote” for this is to be aware of your limitations. To be aware of how you view things. To understand what your perspective is.

Although its trite, which one of the three outlooks do you see yourself fitting in well with?

“Is the glass half empty, half full, or twice as large as it needs to be?

For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.

Strategic Foresight: Six Global Megatrends that are affecting us all

Futures, Scenario Planninng, Strategic Foresight

We all feel that the world is changing, but how?

We all inherently seem to know that things are different on a number of different levels. Whether at work, or “third sector” organisations, in the interactions we have with the world around us, or more broadly what we see happening in the economy.

These changes can be thought of as trends, and if they are long enough, deep enough and pervasive enough they are called “megatrends”.

And there are six megatrends that are affecting all of us.

  1. Globalisation 2.0
  2. Climate Change
  3. Individualism
  4. Digitisation
  5. Demographic changes
  6. Converging technologies

Globalisation 2.0: think how the first wave of globalization was all about the USA & Europe. With the growing middle class in Asia, Globalisation 2.0 will be focused in this region

Climate Change: think globally, think sustainability, think about resources that were once abundant and the impact of this upon the bottom-line

Individualism: do you really know your customers, your employees, your volunteers? How are you meeting their needs? If you dismiss this point, you don’t get the shift in attitudes.

Digitisation: the blurring of the boundaries between all aspects of our lives

Demographic changes: a rapidly aging population. How does this dynamic affect your customers, your employees, your volunteers?

Converging technologies: what will the impact be as information technology, nano technology and biotechnology merge?

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“The only constant in life is change”, Heraclitus (500BC)

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For more, visit Dellium Advisory, follow on Twitter, connect using LinkedIn, or review my IT-centric blog.